Monsoon Likely To Remain ‘Below Normal’ This Year Amid El Nino Risk, Predicts IMD

India weather office forecasts below normal monsoon, predicting 92 percent of average June to September rainfall, with El Nino posing risks to agriculture and water levels

has forecast a below-normal monsoon for 2026. (Image: PTI)

India is likely to receive below-normal rains during the southwest monsoon this year, said the India Meteorological Department on Monday, raising concerns among farmers.

The MeT released the first long-range forecast of the monsoon, which will be followed with the second forecast in May and then a subdivisional forecast.

The rainy season is crucial for India’s agricultural economy. The southwest monsoon brings more than 75 percent of the annual rainfall from June to September.

According to the weather department, the rainfall is most likely to be below normal – at about 92 percent of the long period average (LPA). The forecast carries a model error of +/-5 percent, and the seasonal rainfall between 90 and 95 percent of the LPA is below normal.

The season is crucial to farmers, especially for the rain-fed kharif crops. “We are not expecting significant impact of less rains in June-July, but the below rainfall during the second half is concerning, as El Nino is likely to peak after July,” said M Ravichandran, secretary, ministry of earth sciences.

El Nino is a global ocean condition, which has a significant impact on monsoon rains and weather in India. It is associated with deficient rainfall and drought conditions.

Forecasters said at present, weak La Nina conditions persist and they are likely to transition to neutral, followed by the emergency of El Nino in July. The IMD will predict the onset of monsoon around mid-May depending on the conditions.

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