Saffron gulaal demand dominates Kolkata markets, signalling BJP confidence, while Polymarket odds show a tight Bengal race.
The West Bengal Assembly elections are witnessing a high-stakes clash between the BJP and the Trinamool Congress. (Image: PTI/File)
A trader in Kolkata’s Bara Bazar estimates that nearly 90 per cent of current demand is for saffron gulaal, with green accounting for barely 10 per cent.
The final answer will arrive on May 4, when votes are counted and the mandate becomes clear. But in the days just before exit polls begin to shape the narrative, small, almost anecdotal signals from the ground often offer a glimpse into the mood of the electorate. Two such signals are emerging from two unlikely places – the wholesale colour markets of North Kolkata and US-based Polymarkets.
THE POLITICS OF ‘GULAAL’
Every election season in India carries its own rituals. Among them is a lesser-known but telling practice: political workers stocking up on gulaal — coloured powder — in anticipation of victory celebrations. In West Bengal, colours are not just festive; they are deeply political. Saffron is closely associated with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), while green is identified with the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC).
In the narrow lanes of Bara Bazar, particularly Bonfield Lane — a hub for wholesale colour traders — shopkeepers say they are witnessing a striking shift this election cycle.
Babulal Mehnot, a veteran Marwari businessman who has spent decades in the trade, describes an unusual trend. According to him, the demand pattern has dramatically tilted in favour of saffron. “It has flipped this time. Everyone is demanding saffron. We stocked so much green colour in anticipation. Now no one is asking for it.”
Mehnot estimates that nearly 90 per cent of current demand is for saffron, with green accounting for barely 10 per cent. The imbalance has been so sharp that he claims to have halted the production of green gulaal altogether. “Whatever I have produced is still lying unsold. I am staring at a loss.”
In contrast, saffron is flying off the shelves. “The bulky bags in my godown are already sold out. If you want saffron now, you’ll have to place an order in advance.”
It would be a stretch — and a risky one — to treat gulaal sales as a scientific predictor of electoral outcomes. Markets can reflect enthusiasm, but they don’t measure silent voters, undecided blocs, or last-minute swings.
Yet, what this trend does capture is confidence. The surge in saffron demand suggests that BJP supporters are preparing for celebration in large numbers. On the other hand, the subdued demand for green may hint at either caution or complacency among TMC cadres.
POLYMARKETS
Another indicator comes from global prediction market Polymarket, which is offering a real-time glimpse into where money and sentiment are leaning. According to the latest trading data, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) holds a narrow edge, with odds hovering around 52 per cent, while the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) trails closely at 47–48 per cent.
This effectively translates into a margin of just 4–5 percentage points, making it one of the tightest contests in recent Bengal electoral history.
The numbers underline just how competitive this election is. Prediction markets, where participants bet real money, aggregate thousands of opinions into probabilities.
In this case, they suggest three things:
• BJP slightly ahead
• TMC still very much in the race
• No runaway winner
More than $2 million has been traded on this US-based platform on the question of who will win the West Bengal election.
Polymarket’s odds are not seat projections. They don’t indicate how many seats each party will win. Instead, they reflect the probability of emerging as the single largest party or overall winner.
If Polymarket is any indicator, Bengal is heading for a photo-finish election – with the BJP having a slight edge.
April 28, 2026, 14:11 IST
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