MGR, Jayalalithaa… Vijay? Why Thalapathy Could Be Next G.O.A.T Of Tamil Nadu Politics

The projections for TVK vary wildly but all agree on one thing: Vijay has broken into the political mainstream in his very first election

Political analysts had initially framed Vijay as a “disruptor” at best. (PTI)

Tamil Nadu’s 2026 election has thrown up a familiar but high-stakes question in southern politics: can a film superstar convert mass fandom into political power? Exit polls suggest that Vijay’s party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), could emerge as a decisive player, with some projections pointing to a kingmaker role in a tight DMK vs AIADMK contest, and others floating the possibility of a hung Assembly. This has revived comparisons with a long line of Southern film stars who stepped into politics, all with sharply different outcomes.

Across agencies, the exit poll projections for TVK vary wildly but all agree on one thing: Vijay has broken into the political mainstream in his very first election. The most high-end projection comes from Axis My India, which pegs the number at a staggering 98-120 seats, putting Vijay within a striking distance of forming a government and making an extraordinary debut.

ALSO READ | Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2026: Axis My India Predicts 98-120 Seats For TVK, Hung House On May 4

According to People’s Pulse (18-24 seats) and P-Marq (16-26 seats), TVK doesn’t win but becomes decisive in a tight Assembly, potentially holding the balance of power. People’s Insight says the number would vary between 30-40 seats, while Matrize puts it at 10-12 seats. CNN-News18’s VoteVibe pegged the TVK’s share between four and 10 seats. Even where seat numbers differ, most projections agree on three things: TVK is a serious third force, it could split votes in a DMK vs AIADMK contest, and in tighter scenarios, Vijay could emerge as a kingmaker.

A Star-Studded History

The exit poll buzz around Vijay immediately invites comparison with southern cinema-politics crossovers.

Some of the rare successes of actors who turned netas include MG Ramachandran, who converted fandom into a dominant ruling party (AIADMK); screenwriter and chief minister Karunanidhi, and J Jayalalithaa, who built a long-term political empire. These leaders didn’t just enter politics but redefined it, enjoying a massive fan following that continued even after their demise.

Some others enjoyed mixed or limited outcomes. For instance, Kamal Haasan, got visibility without an electoral breakthrough, but the buzz soon fizzled out. Similarly, Rajinikanth, who enjoys a cult status, never fully contested.

Where Vijay Fits

Vijay’s exit poll range—from 10 seats to potentially over 100—is unusually wide, but even the lower end matters. If the party crosses 15-20 seats, it would be comparable to early-stage regional entrants. Crossing 30-40 seats would show the emergence as a third pole, while crossing 80+ seats would essentially mean entry into the league of MGR/NTR-style breakthroughs. No recent film-star entrant in Tamil Nadu has begun with numbers of this scale.

ALSO READ | A Complete Timeline Of Thalapathy Vijay’s Political Journey

Exit polls also hint at why Vijay is performing. To begin with, he enjoys a cult following among the youth and could have been able to sway first-time voter appeal. Vijay also seems to have capitalised on the leadership vacuum in the post-Jayalalithaa, post-Karunanidhi Tamil Nadu, making the contest three-cornered, unlike its usual bipolar past. This combination has allowed TVK to move beyond being a “celebrity party” into a credible electoral player.

Disruptor Or Successor?

Political analysts had initially framed Vijay as a “disruptor” at best. However, exit polls now suggest something more nuanced. In some scenarios, the actor could be a vote splitter, in others, he could be kingmaker, and in a few, he may become a potential power centre.

Vijay’s TVK has already cleared the hardest barrier for celebrity politicians—relevance in electoral math. But history offers a clear warning: MGR and NTR succeeded because they built organisation and narrative and others stalled because they relied on charisma alone.

For now, exit polls show Vijay has arrived. Whether he becomes Tamil Nadu’s next political pivot or just its biggest disruptor will be decided on counting day.

Read More