Despite a third meeting between TVK chief Vijay and Tamil Nadu’s Governor, there is no clarity yet on the government formation in the state.
TVK chief Vijay. (File)
Tamil Nadu could witness a landmark moment in its political history, as a non-Dravidian party may be sworn into power for the first time in decades. Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) chief Vijay is expected to take oath as Chief Minister after days of political uncertainty and negotiations.
TVK managed to cross the majority mark after receiving support from the Congress, VCK, CPI and CPI(M), helping Vijay move closer to power. The TVK-led alliance now has 116 seats, just shy of a majority in the Assembly.
While there has been no official confirmation from the Governor on a final approval for a TVK-led government, the attention will shift to how Vijay manages a coalition government with a razor-thin majority for the next five years. Even the rebellion of a couple of MLAs could trigger a seismic shift in Tamil Nadu’s politics and put the ‘Jana Nayagan’ under serious pressure.
Scenario 1: A Stable Govt With All Parties On Board
Notably, most of Tamil Nadu’s governments have remained stable. In fact, this is Tamil Nadu’s first hung assembly since 1952. The involvement of so many parties in a coalition that is marginally ahead of the majority mark presents a set of challenges, but all parties are so far on a common ground to keep the resurgent BJP out of the fray.
Several leaders from Congress and the Left have sought to prevent political instability in Tamil Nadu, maintain the secular values, and keep communal forces out of the state’s politics. Furthermore, Vijay enjoys an overwhelming public mandate, and efforts to derail the government would invite severe backlash against the smaller parties.
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Scenario 2: What If All Parties Withdraw?
In case of a major disagreement that leads to all parties in the coalition deciding to withdraw their support to the TVK, Vijay will fall short of the required numbers to form the government and will be compelled to prove a majority on the floor. In case he fails to do that and there is no other alternative, the Governor can impose President’s Rule under Article 356 of the Constitution, till fresh elections are announced.
It is worth noting that Left parties have opted for strategic flexibility and are not fully tied to Vijay’s government. They have also declared that it would support the DMK-led alliance on certain policy issues, allowing it to pressure the TVK on certain issues.
Scenario 3: If Some Parties Withdraw Support To TVK
In a situation where some of the three parties decide to withdraw support to the TVK, Vijay will be forced to scramble for support from other parties, such as the AMMK. He will again be required to prove majority during a floor test, and an inability to do so could invite President’s rule.
Chennai [Madras], India, India
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