Kamal Singh|Newsdesk7
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New Delhi: India’s sugar production during the current 2025-26 sugar season (October-September) is estimated at around 306 lakh tonnes, about 11% lower than the initial projection of 343 lakh tonnes, according to the latest government assessment. The lower production estimate comes amid concerns over rising domestic sugar prices and availability ahead of the festive season. The government, however, has said that the country is expected to have sufficient stocks to meet domestic requirements until fresh sugar from the next crushing season begins to arrive. Why Has Sugar Production Fallen? Officials have attributed the downward revision to weather-related crop damage and lower sugarcane productivity in some of the country's major sugar-producing states. Excess rainfall in Maharashtra last October, along with reports of Red Rot and Top Borer disease affecting sugarcane crops in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, have contributed to lower-than-expected production. The initial production estimates made by sugarcane-producing states stood at approximately 343 lakh tonnes, while industry estimates had also projected higher output earlier in the season. Government Rules Out Ethanol Diversion as Main Reason The government has rejected suggestions that the current sugar shortage and increase in prices are primarily due to the diversion of sugar for ethanol production. According to the government, the share of sugar diverted for ethanol has actually declined from around 12% in 2022-23 to approximately 9% in 2025-26. Officials also pointed out that nearly three-fourths of India's ethanol production now comes from grains rather than sugar-based feedstock. Sugar Prices Rise Sharply The downward revision in production comes at a time when domestic sugar prices have increased significantly. Retail sugar prices reportedly reached around ₹58.20 per kg on August 21, registering a rise of nearly 20% in one month and around 26% compared with the same period last year. The government has attributed the price increase to several factors, including: Lower-than-expected domestic sugar production Increased demand ahead of the festive season Weather-related crop damage Tightening global sugar supplies Speculation and hoarding in some sections of the market Opening Sugar Stock May Fall The lower production estimate is also expected to affect India's opening stock at the beginning of the next sugar season. Government officials estimate that sugar stocks on October 1 could be around 33-34 lakh tonnes, compared with approximately 50 lakh tonnes a year earlier. Despite the decline, officials have indicated that the available carry-over stock should be adequate to meet domestic demand until the new sugar season gets underway. Government Allows Duty-Free Sugar Imports To address concerns over domestic supply and prices, the government has already allowed the duty-free import of 10 lakh tonnes of raw sugar. The move is aimed at strengthening domestic availability and preventing a further escalation in sugar prices. The government's decision comes as global sugar supplies are also facing pressure. The Food Ministry has estimated a global sugar deficit of around 33 lakh tonnes for 2026-27, while adverse weather conditions have added uncertainty to the global outlook. Earlier Industry Estimate Was Higher The latest government projection is considerably lower than the industry's earlier estimate. In February 2026, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) had revised its gross sugar production estimate for the 2025-26 season to 32.4 million tonnes, down from its earlier projection of 34.35 million tonnes. ISMA had attributed the revision to lower productivity in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka. ISMA's estimate also projected about 3.1 million tonnes of sugar diversion for ethanol, leaving net sugar production at around 29.3 million tonnes. What Does This Mean for Consumers? The lower production outlook could keep sugar prices under pressure, particularly during periods of increased demand. The government is closely monitoring domestic availability and has taken measures such as allowing imports to ensure that consumers do not face a significant shortage. For households, the immediate concern remains the rising retail price of sugar, while for sugar mills and farmers, the production shortfall could influence market prices and the economics of the upcoming crushing season. Key Sugar Production Numbers Indicator Figure Current sugar season 2025-26 Season period October-September Latest government production estimate 306 lakh tonnes Initial state projection 343 lakh tonnes Difference 11% lower Expected Oct. 1 opening stock 33-34 lakh tonnes Previous year's opening stock Around 50 lakh tonnes Duty-free raw sugar import allowed 10 lakh tonnes Retail sugar price on Aug. 21 Around ₹58.20/kg What Lies Ahead? The government is expected to continue monitoring sugar production, stocks and retail prices as the current season approaches its end. With domestic consumption remaining strong and global sugar supplies tightening, the balance between production, imports, exports and ethanol diversion will remain crucial for India's sugar market. For consumers, the key question will be whether the government's import and supply measures can help stabilise retail prices ahead of the festive season. Conclusion India's sugar production estimate of 306 lakh tonnes for the 2025-26 season represents a significant downward revision from the initial 343-lakh-tonne projection. While the government has ruled out ethanol diversion as the main reason for the supply pressure, weather damage, crop diseases and lower productivity have emerged as key factors. With sugar prices already rising and opening stocks expected to be lower than last year, the government’s decision to allow 10 lakh tonnes of duty-free raw sugar imports could play an important role in maintaining domestic supply and keeping prices under control.
Kamal Singh
Experienced journalist and writer
