West Bengal News18 Exit Poll Breakout for BJP vs TMC | West Bengal Assembly Election 2026 Results Prediction

News18 Exit Poll Result West Bengal 2026: The BJP is projected to win 88–98 seats, while the TMC is likely to secure 51–61 seats.

The BJP has expanded significantly since 2019 and 2021, positioning itself as the main alternative to TMC.

CNN-News18 West Bengal Exit Poll: The BJP has dominated 152 seats, which went to polls in the first phase of the West Bengal elections, nearly doubling the Trinamool Congress (TMC) tally, according to exit poll projections.

If these trends hold when votes are counted on May 4, it would indicate that the BJP has further consolidated its position in north Bengal, a region where it had already won the bulk of its seats in the 2021 Assembly elections.

Big BJP Lead In North Bengal, TMC Trails

According to exit poll projections released exclusively by VoteVibe for CNN-News18, the BJP is projected to win 88–98 seats, while the TMC is likely to secure 51–61 seats. The Congress may open its account, but is expected to remain below five seats.

As per VoteVibe’s findings, the BJP+ is projected to secure 43.7% vote share, followed by the TMC at 41.9%. The Congress is estimated at 3.6%, the Left at 4.3%, and Others at 6.5%. The gap between the BJP+ and TMC stands at around 3 percentage points — well within the ±3% margin of error.

Vote Share By Gender, Demography

The exit poll points to sharp demographic and regional divides shaping the contest. Among men, the BJP holds a narrow lead with 44.2% support, compared to the TMC’s 42.7%. Among women, the BJP also edges ahead at 43.2%, while the TMC trails at 41.2%.

By age, younger voters (18–24) show a clear preference for the BJP, with 44.8% backing the party, while support among older voters stands at around 42.7%.

Community-wise, the BJP appears to command strong support among SCs (58.8%), STs (60%), OBCs (63.7%), and upper-caste Hindus (57.7%). In contrast, the TMC draws overwhelming support from Muslims at 76%, along with about 42.4% from other minority groups, including Christians. Among Hindu communities — spanning SC, ST, OBC, and upper castes — the TMC’s support ranges between roughly 26% and 31%.

Regionally, the BJP holds an edge in the Medinipur division and Jalpaiguri, with vote shares of 47.3% and 49.9%, respectively. The TMC, however, leads in Burdwan at 42.8% and in Malda at 44.3%.

The urban–rural divide is also evident. The BJP enjoys strong support in urban areas, polling 48.5%, while the TMC performs better in rural regions with 44.1% of the vote.

West Bengal CM Preference

On the chief ministerial preference, BJP’s Suvendu Adhikari holds a narrow lead with 43% support, closely followed by Mamata Banerjee at 42.5%. Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury garners 3.8%, while CPI(M)’s Mohammed Salim stands at 4.1%.

West Bengal Issues

Employment emerged as the biggest issue in the election, with 35.7% of respondents citing a lack of jobs as their primary concern. The issue of Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls followed at 21%. Corruption was flagged by 10.5% of respondents, while 6.9% pointed to inflation. Law and order and women’s safety were cited by a relatively smaller share, at just 4.3%.

2026 Voter Turnout

Over 90% voter turnout was recorded in the first phase of elections, xx voters stepped out to exercise their franchise in the second phase.

2021 West Bengal Election Results

The TMC scored a landslide majority in the 2021 West Bengal Assembly election, while the BJP emerged as the primary opposition party.

Here is the final seat tally for the 294-member Assembly in 2021:

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