West Bengal Election 2026: 6 Pollsters See BJP Edge, But Two Predict TMC Landslide

Two pollsters emerged as clear outliers, projecting a sweeping victory for the TMC and a potential fourth consecutive term in power.

In terms of vote share, Peoples Pulse estimated the TMC at 46.5%, ahead of the BJP at 41.5%. (PTI/File)

West Bengal Election 2026: As polling concluded for the West Bengal Assembly elections, most exit polls suggested an edge for the Bharatiya Janata Party, though Mamata Banerjee’s All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) was projected to be close behind, indicating a competitive contest.

However, two pollsters emerged as clear outliers, projecting a sweeping victory for the TMC and a potential fourth consecutive term in power.

West Bengal Exit Poll 2026 Live Updates

According to Peoples Pulse, the TMC is likely to win 177–187 seats, while the BJP may secure 95–110 seats. The Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Front is projected to once again struggle to open its account, while the Indian National Congress could win 1–3 seats.

Bengal Exit Polls 2026: CM Mamata’s Reign To End? Pollsters Predict Tight Fight Between TMC, BJP

In terms of vote share, Peoples Pulse estimated the TMC at 46.5%, ahead of the BJP at 41.5%. The Left was projected at 4.1%, Congress at 2.1%, and others at 5.1%. The agency said its projections carry a margin of error of ±3 percentage points, highlighting the possibility of variation, especially in tightly contested seats.

Another outlier, Janmat Polls, projected an even stronger performance for the TMC, estimating 195–205 seats for the ruling party. It forecast the BJP at 80–90 seats, Congress at 1–3, and the Left at 0–1 seats.

The divergence between these projections and the broader exit poll trend underscores how small variations in vote share can translate into significant differences in seat tallies in a first-past-the-post system.

According to exit poll projections released exclusively by VoteVibe for CNN-News18, the BJP is projected to win 88–98 seats, while the TMC is likely to secure 51–61 seats. The Congress may open its account, but is expected to remain below five seats.

According to the ‘poll of polls’—an aggregate of multiple exit poll projections—the BJP is projected to win 137–157 seats, while the TMC is likely to secure 131–151 seats.

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