Facing fiscal abyss, internal factionalism and communal balancing acts, can Satheesan survive a wounded Left and a resurgent BJP to survive the 2029 Lok Sabha litmus test?
VD Satheesan is the new Kerala chief minister.
In a stunning nail-biter, the Congress high command has finally bitten the bullet to award the chief ministership of Kerala to VD Satheesan. While the state will witness great celebrations of his triumph, Satheesan’s trials are only now starting. He inherits not just a mandate but a minefield of political, communal, and institutional challenges that could define or derail his tenure.
Trial 1: The Jamaat-e-Islami Baggage
Satheesan’s rise has been persistently marred by allegations of a deal between him and the Jamaat-e-Islami. Despite being a pariah for political parties in Kerala, Satheesan has not hesitated in openly accepting Jamaat support and even defended the outfit, giving it a secular certificate. Back in February, Satheesan’s sniping at former law minister AK Balan for calling Jamaat ‘communal’ had grabbed headlines.
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Under Satheesan, Congress has engaged in a dangerous tactical dance with the Maudoodis, whose supreme leader in Kerala, Shaikh Muhammed Karakunnu, had even called for establishment of an Islamic Republic, even as recently as January 2026.
Jamaat-e-Islami has clearly helped consolidate Muslim votes for Satheesan. With friends like that, defending his secular credentials would itself be a big task.
In addition, Satheesan also has the unenviable task of managing a balancing act between the Jamaat and their arch-rivals, the Sunni supreme body Samastha, which had also lent him its implicit support.
There is every chance that he could alienate Hindu voters, who view the rising influence of Muslim community with alarm, and also moderate and reformist Muslim voices who view the growing influence of Jamaat with alarm.
Trial 2: Hindu Anger and IUML’s Pound of Flesh
All UDF allies were unanimous in their support for Satheesan as chief minister. But none more vociferous than the Muslim League. IUML had delivered crucial victories for Congress in seats where it does not have a strong organisation.
As usual, the League will expect its pound of flesh, with growing calls already for key posts like deputy chief minister and education ministry.
At the same time, Satheesan has been unequivocal in his refusal to pander to the egos of Hindu community organisations like Nair Service Society (NSS) and Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP).
Their chagrin at his selection as chief minister is evident. Even in the 11th hour, NSS General Secretary Sukumaran Nair had come out to slam Satheesan, and criticise Congress for “allowing the League a disproportionate influence in CM selection”.
Satheesan, himself a Nair, could soon face a realignment of social coalitions that permanently erodes the UDF’s Hindu vote bank. The NSS and SNDP, feeling betrayed, could have serious ramifications. If Satheesan fails to pacify these groups, and is perceived as capitulating to the IUML, it could trigger a massive exodus of Hindu vote bank toward BJP.
With LDF a spent force, there is no alternative for NSS and SNDP to seek a say in Kerala matters, except by cozying up to the party in power at the Centre.
Trial 3: Taming Factions, Asserting Authority
Forty-six of 63 Congress MLAs had reportedly backed KC Venugopal to the top post. Satheesan now inherits a legislature party that is full of people who did not speak up for him. The powerful factions led by Venugopal and Ramesh Chennithala are unlikely to stay mum for long. Congress is, after all, famous for constant backstabbing, policy paralysis, and leadership crises.
Satheesan faces an uphill task of ensuring loyalty of a solid majority of legislators. If he fails to do so, he will find himself isolated within the party and a lame duck chief minister. He would increasingly be dependent on coalition partners to prop up his government, which would further erode his authority.
Trial 4: The 2029 Lok Sabha Litmus Test
As opposition leader, VD Satheesan had just one task and that was to bring down the Pinarayi Vijayan government. In this, he had the implicit trust and support of party machinery.
In the subsequent leadership tussle though, we did see a division within ranks. Traditionally, the KPCC president acts as a neutral referee. But this time, Sunny Joseph was clearly seen throwing his weight behind Venugopal.
Satheesan now inherits a party organisation that may not be entirely in sync with him, a recipe for administrative and organisational paralysis. Satheesan will have to ensure that rival factions don’t undermine his policy initiatives and public standing at every turn.
The 2029 Lok Sabha election will be his next monumental challenge. In 2024, the UDF managed a sweeping victory, securing 18 out of 20 parliamentary seats in Kerala. With Satheesan as chief minister, the expectations are high. Anything less than a repeat of 2024 will be immediately weaponised, and trigger growing calls for him to step down halfway through his term.
Trial 5: Rising Debt And A Global Crisis
As chief minister, Satheesan has the unenviable task of running a cash-strapped state just coming out of five years of Left misrule. A daunting task would be to overcome the catastrophic state of Kerala’s finances and still deliver on the ‘Indira promises’ of the UDF manifesto, like free bus travel for women and minimum income scheme.
Satheesan inherits a treasury, which is estimated to be nearing a staggering Rs 4.5 lakh crore debt. The previous LDF administration had been criticised for its KIIFB-led development model which bypassed budgetary scrutiny and pushed the state into an even bigger debt trap. Now, the bill will come due, and Satheesan is left holding it.
The global economic crisis due West Asia conflict compounds this problem. Experts have forecast a potential 20 per cent drop in foreign remittances that Kerala is heavily dependent on. This remittance shock will undermine consumption and real estate that are the state’s main growth drivers.
Furthermore, Kerala’s industrial sector has been demanding a radical redrawing of policies and crackdown on militant unionism. An out-of-power Left has already indicated it will now be an ‘era of protests’. Every single major reform will surely face protests and disruption from Left cadre.
Lacking an adept minister of finance, like the late KM Mani, choosing the right economic path would be Satheesan’s cross to bear.
Trial 6: The Ghost of Punarjani
Unlike his contemporaries, VD Satheesan enters the chief minister’s office with no ministerial experience.
Despite this, he is already haunted by a probe which is surely going to be in focus. It is related to irregularities in the Punarjani project launched in his home constituency of Paravur after the 2018 Kerala floods.
A Vigilance probe under the Pinarayi Vijayan government had recommended a CBI probe in January 2026, alleging significant violations of the Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Act (FCRA). The allegations surround funding received from a British Muslim Charity by Manappattu Foundation, the CSR arm of a corporate entity owned by one Ameer Ahamed.
The allegation would surely be a weapon in the Opposition arsenal against Satheesan for a long time to come. The constant threat of central agencies knocking on his door could hang like a Damocles sword.
As the 2026 mandate finally translates into the daily grind of governance, the six trials for Satheesan will surely test his astute political acumen. The path ahead is thorny. The question is whether Satheesan will be a resilient leader.
Thiruvananthapuram [Trivandrum], India, India
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