Russia made nearly no territorial gains in Ukraine in March: Analysis

Russia’s army recorded almost no territorial gains on the front line in Ukraine in March for the first time in two and a half years, AFP analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) showed.

The Russian army has been slowing in its advances since late 2025 — because of Kyiv’s localised breakthroughs in the southeast of the country — and lost ground in February and March on the southern section of the front line between the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

Across the entire front line, the Russian army seized only 23 sq. km in March, losing territory in some areas, according to the analysis.

This figure excludes infiltration operations conducted by Russian forces beyond the front line, as well as advances claimed by the Russian side but neither confirmed nor denied by the ISW.

The ISW worked with the Critical Threats Project (part of the American Enterprise Institute, or AEI), another U.S. think tank specialising in conflict.

The Russian army made 319 square kilometres of gains in January and 123 sq. km in February, which was then the smallest advance since April 2024.

Its advance in March was the smallest since September 2023.

The ISW attributed the slowdown to Ukrainian counter-offensives, but also to “Russia’s ban on using Starlink terminals in Ukraine” and “the Kremlin’s efforts to restrict access to Telegram”.

The messaging app, very popular among Russians, including those fighting on the front, has been barely usable in recent months due to blocks imposed by the authorities.

As in February, Russia lost ground on the southern section of the front line, between the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, where it occupied more than 400 sq. km at the end of January.

This area shrank to 200 sq. km in February and to 144 sq. km in March.

The situation was, however, unfavourable for Kyiv further north in the Donetsk region, towards the two major regional cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

In 2025, the Russian army made more progress in Ukraine than in the preceding 24 months.

But in the first three months of 2026, Russian territorial gains were half those of the same period in 2025.

Four years after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow occupies just over 19% of the country, the majority of which was seized during the first weeks of the conflict.

Approximately 7%, including Crimea and areas in the Donbas region, was already under Russian or pro-Russian separatist control before the invasion.