Assembly Elections 2026: C-VOTER Opinion Poll Shows Kerala Heading For Photo Finish Between UDF And LDF

CNN-News18’s own Vote Tracker opinion poll, conducted by VoteVibe, indicated a near dead heat between the two major alliances. 

The ruling LDF government appears to be facing a divided public opinion.

As the 2026 Assembly elections approach, Kerala is witnessing one of its closest electoral contests in recent years, raising the key question: will the incumbents retain power or is the state ready for change?

A CVOTER opinion poll suggests a slight edge for the United Democratic Front (UDF), which is projected to secure around 40% of the vote share, compared to the Left Democratic Front (LDF)’s 36%.

News18 Poll Signals Photo Finish

CNN-News18’s own Vote Tracker opinion poll, conducted by VoteVibe and released on April 6, indicated a near dead heat between the two major alliances. The poll projects the UDF to win between 64 and 74 seats, while the ruling LDF is expected to secure 63 to 73 seats in the 140-member Assembly. Vote share estimates further reinforce this trend, with the UDF at 39.7% and the LDF at 38.7%- a gap within the margin of error. With a segment of undecided voters still in play, even minor shifts in voter preference could decisively alter the outcome. Meanwhile, the BJP-led NDA is projected to win between 1 and 5 seats, suggesting a limited but potentially significant presence in a tight race.

Read more: LDF Vs UDF In Kerala: Opinion Poll Predicts Close Contest In 2026 Elections; Gain For NDA

The contest also features a closely fought leadership preference. According to the survey, 31.3% of respondents favour incumbent Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan continuing in office. He is closely followed by Congress leader V D Satheesan, who garnered 29.5% support, indicating a competitive face-off between the two leaders.

The ruling LDF government appears to be facing a divided public opinion. Around 40% of respondents rated its performance as “very good” or “good.” However, a slightly larger share- approximately 43%- described it as “poor” or “very poor,” suggesting a degree of voter dissatisfaction that could influence the final outcome.

Economic concerns dominate voter priorities in the state. Price rise has emerged as the top issue, cited by 17% of respondents, followed closely by unemployment at 16.2% and corruption at 12.9%.

With margins razor-thin, leadership preferences closely split, and key issues shaping voter sentiment, Kerala’s 2026 Assembly election is poised to be a cliffhanger.

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