West Bengal Elections 2026 Opinion: Can TMC Retain Majority In Assembly Polls | Explained

West Bengal Elections 2026: News18’s VoteVibe April 8 survey gives the ruling party 174–184 seats- a comfortable buffer.

West Bengal Elections 2026 opinion: Can TMC Retain Majority in assembly polls | Explained

West Bengal Elections 2026: As West Bengal heads toward its 2026 Assembly elections on April 23 and April 29, opinion polls consistently point to one conclusion: Trinamool Congress (TMC) will win a majority but the era of landslide victories appears to be over. With 148 seats needed for a majority in the 294-member assembly, the Mamata Banerjee-led party is projected to clear that bar across virtually every recent survey. The real story, however, is how dramatically the margin has shrunk.

Read more: ‘TMC Has Ruined Bengal’: PM Modi Launches Scathing Attack On Mamata At Poll Rally In Asansol

What Numbers Point To?

Every major polling agency places TMC above the halfway mark. Vote Tracker April 8 opinion poll by VoteVibe, released exclusively on CNN-News18, gives the ruling party 174-184 seats- a comfortable buffer. IANS-Matrize projects 155- 170, CVoter estimates around 160 and ABP News–Matrize’s estimates 140-160 range. Taken together, the polling consensus is clear: TMC wins but the question remains by how much.

Majority In Freefall

An earlier opinion poll by VoteVibe, released on March 23, predicted 184-194 seats for TMC and 98-108 for BJP. Each revision has nudged TMC closer to the majority line while increasing BJP’s seats. Compare this to 2021, when TMC won 215 seats and BJP managed just 77. The ruling party may be heading toward a majority that is roughly 50–70 seats smaller than its last mandate while BJP could nearly double its previous tally, as per opinion polls.

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Why Majority Looks Smaller Than Before

Based on available polling data, TMC will win a majority on May 4 when results are declared. A result in the 155–175 seat range- the most probable outcome- would represent a significantly weakened mandate, a strengthened opposition and a political landscape in West Bengal that looks very different from the one Mamata Banerjee commanded just five years ago.

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